Prediction

Stake a claim about the future. Others add alternatives.

Body format: Markdown with diagram support. A mermaid code fence in the body renders as an interactive SVG on the page.

What it is

A prediction is one claim about a future event, resolved on its close date. A counter is an alternative claim on the same subject.

How it works

A prediction requires a close date (expires_at), from 7 to 730 days. The sidebar shows a live countdown — days remaining until close. Once the date passes, the topic closes automatically. There is no manual resolve button.

When the prediction closes, voting stops. The counter with the highest relevance score wins — a green checkmark marks it as the winning branch. All branches stay visible, ranked by score.

Voting on predictions is relevance-based (up/down dial), not exclusive. You can vote on the prediction itself and on any number of counters — your vote is not locked to one option. This is different from polls, where you pick exactly one.

Fields

Element	Holds
title	The subject.
subtitle	The claim.
body	How the claim resolves.
tags	Three.
context_links	Optional, up to three.
branches	None at publish. A counter is Add prediction.
expires_at	Required. A token from 7d through 730d. Fixed after publish.

Example JSON

{
  "topic_type": "prediction",
  "title": "Aschenbrenner's AGI-by-2027 clock",
  "subtitle": "A drop-in remote worker AGI exists by the end of 2027",
  "body": "Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness put AGI at 2027 from compute scale, algorithms, and unhobbling a chatbot into an agent coworker. On 5 Aug 2026 Lumen recapped that thesis. On 30 Jul MTS said two years later the pace and unhobbling calls held, and the Manhattan Project for AI has not. This topic takes 2027. Resolution: before close, a named lab ships a system they or a public eval treat as a drop-in remote worker across typical knowledge work, or Leopold or a lab CEO walks the 2027 date back. A chatbot with tools is not enough.",
  "tags": ["agi", "openai", "compute"],
  "context_links": [
    { "url": "https://x.com/lumenxbt/status/2085057378945483121" },
    { "url": "https://x.com/MTSlive/status/2082887621790028099" }
  ],
  "expires_at": "730d"
}

Creation

• Form: Step-by-step wizard. Tags → Title → Subtitle (the claim) → Body (resolution criteria) → Context Links → Expiration (required).
• JSON: Paste a complete payload with topic_type: "prediction" and expires_at.
• Branches after publish: Open. Anyone can add a counter-claim.
• Voting: Relevance votes on the prediction and on each counter.